For Friday, November 23, 2012, We Recommend Against Investing

Technical Comment:

The S&P 500 advance 0.23% on Wednesday with volume below Tuesday and lower than the 30 day moving average.  US markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will reopen on Friday.  If the S&P 500 declines about 25 points on Friday (-1.8%), our automated forecast could change to an uncertain trend.

Subjective Comment:

Overall market volume remains very light, most likely due to the holiday.  The very light volume up-day on Wednesday means the daily patterns still do not show confidence the market will continue to rally.  Our automated forecast does predict growth, but this is only because the stop-loss algorithm was un-triggered and not because a growth pattern has developed.  Our pattern detection software looks for multiple strong-volume up-days, and that has not yet happened. Continue to avoid all bonds and US market index funds for now and consider price inflation hedges as good long term investments.

Every Thursday the Federal Reserve publishes money supply statistics, but not on Thanksgiving.  Instead the Fed will update US M2 data and other data series on Friday, November 23rd.  As a result of this delay our weekly analysis of the US M2 money supply will be published this weekend.

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