For Wednesday March 13, 2013, We Recommend Against Investing


Technical Comment:

The S&P 500 declined 0.2% on Tuesday with volume above Monday but below the 30 day moving average.  Tuesday was classified a strong-volume down-day by our pattern recognition software, even though volume was below the average.  The increase in volume from Monday to Tuesday was enough for the strong-volume classification to be applied.  This makes two days of a weak pattern.  Monday was a light-volume up-day, followed by the strong-volume down-day.  This is not a fully formed pattern with predictive value, but it is interesting.  We are watching to see which way the market will go.  Last week there was weak evidence suggesting market growth could occur.  After the first two days of this week the daily market data is again showing weakness.  Our automated forecast remains at growth, but a decline of about 15 points on Wednesday (-1.0%) could trigger our stop loss algorithm and create an uncertain forecast.

Subjective Comment:

Nothing has occurred to change our subjective opinion.  Please see our posts over the past several days to understand why we recommend against investing in US markets right now.  We’re keeping this post short to minimize repeating ourselves to our regular readers.  We welcome our new readers and suggest starting with the post from last Thursday if you want to get fully caught up.

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