For Wednesday June 26, 2013, We Recommend Against Investing


Investment Recommendations:

Avoid US stock markets right now.  Price inflation hedges remain good long-term investments.  Continue to avoid all bond investments.

 Technical Comments:

The S&P 500 advanced 0.95% on Tuesday with volume below Monday but above the 30 day moving average.  Our pattern detection software classified Tuesday a light-volume up-day and as such there remains no decisive predictive pattern fully formed.  The occurrence of strong-volume down-days remains more frequent than strong-volume up-days, and this is more consistent with a weak market that is likely to decline.  The advance on Tuesday was almost, but not quite enough to change our forecast to a growth trend.  Should the S&P 500 advance again on Wednesday our stop loss trigger will likely reverse and change our forecast to a growth trend.

Subjective Comments:

If the S&P 500 advances on Wednesday and changes our forecast to a growth trend, our subjective recommendation will be to remain in cash and avoid investing in US markets.  Please see our recent posts for a full description of the reasons for our subjective recommendation.

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