For Thursday April 10, 2014, We Recommend Against Equity Investing


Investment Recommendations:

We have changed our subjective investment recommendation to risk-off. Price inflation hedges should be held or accumulated for the long term as price inflation is starting to accelerate. Avoid all bonds, including the new MyRA bond scheme from the Feds. Ignore the propaganda.

Technical Comments:

The S&P 500 advanced 1.09% on Wednesday with volume below Tuesday and lighter than the 30-day moving average, resulting in another light-volume up-day. The formation of the negative pattern is fading, but the overall daily data still suggests market weakness because up-days are occurring on light volume and down-days are happening on stronger volume. Wednesday’s large advance of the S&P 500 index was sufficient to return our automated forecast to a growth trend. If the S&P 500 were to decline about 19 to 20 points on Thursday (-1%) our stop-loss algorithm could trigger again and return our forecast to an uncertain trend.

Subjective Comments:

We suggest ignoring our automated forecast for now and staying out of the market. The large up and down volatility suggests the market could be at a turning point. There is an absence of growth combined with strong volume, and the money supply growth rate has been slowing. All of these are reasons to be cautious right now.

Wind Down of Daily Blog Posts:

We will continue to post about US markets through the end of March. We are planning on suspending daily posts in early April. We will continue to update our market signals at for our readers interested in tracking our automated and subjective market recommendations. For interested readers, we have the following recommendations for finding excellent commentary:

Best Economic Blog:

The editor of is Robert Wenzel, and he offers a daily email subscription that is absolutely fantastic! You can subscribe at this link. We highly recommend this subscription. You will continue to get great commentary and analysis on the US money supply growth rate using Austrian Business Cycle Theory.

We also suggest, although the blog posts there tend to be a bit snarky and often use terminology that can be difficult for the average reader to follow. is intended for professional traders. There is a larger staff at, so you will find it updated more frequently than, but that’s not always a good thing.

These recommendations will serve you well as we continue to wind down our daily commentary.

Comments are closed.